Monday, July 20, 2009

Obama's "Sinking" Numbers

To follow up on the last posting, I wish to contextualize the findings in the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll that shows support for President Obama's policy initiatives "slipping" to below 50%.

Reading the article and looking at the figure comparing the level of support for Obama versus the level of support for the Republican Party on these issues, it is clear that what we see is not a function of declining support as much as the effect of the partisan polarization that has seeped down through elites to the general public. There is a rising consensus among political scientists that party polarization, which has occurred in Congress since the 1970s, has crept (probably through an increasingly partisan media) down into the broader polity. By the middle of the presidency of George W. Bush, this polarization solidified, leaving a public that is as Manichean in their political views as political elites have been since the mid-1990s. So, the result is that a President will always have at least a third of the public strongly opposed to any initiative.

By the way, I believe this polarization and political manicheanism is very bad for us and a harbinger of trouble in the future.

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